As the 2020 year comes to a close, the hope of a better year is on everyone’s minds. All things considered, the bar is low — most of us simply want 2021 to be better than 2020, in any way possible. But there is good news, as UCLA economists debuted an optimistic forecast for the country earlier this month, predicting that an exuberant vaccine spring will follow a gloomy COVID winter. Their predictions indicate that robust growth is expected for 2021 and beyond. It’s a shot of hope in an otherwise dreary December for our country.
Hardship Ahead
According to the quarterly UCLA Anderson forecast,
“The 20s will be roaring, but with several months of hardship first. These next few months will be dire, with rising COVID infections, continued social distancing, and the expiration of social assistance programs.”
It appears that life and the U.S. economy will worsen before they get better.
Mass vaccinations are expected to clear a path toward a new, productive normalcy for many industries. Their forecast shows a growth of 6% in the second quarter of 2021, with growth rates remaining above 3.0% well into 2023.
Senior economist Leo Feler wrote the report, wherein he reflected, “We expect the economy will reach its previous peak by the end of 2021.”
The National Forecast
The report acknowledges that some weaknesses will remain, as more Americans work from home than ever before and e-commerce continues to become the norm, rather than the exception. Feler suggests, “For better or worse, some parts of the economy will never be the same.”
Given the rollout of both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines across the country (to the tune of 2 million vaccinated as of the writing of this blog), it follows that pent-up consumer demand will have an avenue for release in the coming year.
Expectations for California
The beginning of a return to normalcy could happen as soon as summer 2021, which is when experts expect a large number of Californians will have received one of the vaccines. Technology, residential construction, and logistics are predicted to lead the recovery. Residents of the Golden State can expect California to grow faster than the U.S. as a whole, even if the state’s recovery is expected to begin later.
Unemployment is expected to drop year to year, beginning with a 6.9% unemployment rate in 2021, a 5.2% rate in 2022, and 4.4% in 2023.
Although expert predictions should be taken with considerable understanding and discretion (as ultimately they are just that, predictions), the chance of a booming, roaring 20s, a repeat of the 20th-century version — is promising to say the least. Let us hope that the coming years can eclipse 2020, and leave this year where it belongs, permanently in our rearview mirror.
Contributor, designer & admin for JohnHart Gazette.
