What Does September’s Housing Data Really Mean to Our Industry?
There is much speculation behind why we saw a decrease in home sales in September, versus August of this year, and leading the way is consumer confidence. Many economists and realtors alike are stating that there is still too much uncertainty regarding the bottom of the housing market, and the financial health of the economy as a whole, for buyers to make a strong move back into the market. All of this being said we are still in the midst of a three month run of higher home sales, when compared year to year with 2010.
Dropping 2.1% from August’s total sales, September came in at 487,940 sales with a median price of $287,440 (3.2% lower than the median price in august). While these indicators may seem like a less than desirable sign, regarding the direction the housing market is headed, some are saying that isn’t really the case. In fact, I have spoken with some people who say that when looked at relative to the upticks we have seen in previous months, we may just be experiencing a healthy bouncing around the bottom as the market gradually begins to return.
Both theories make sense in my opinion, however I think it is too soon to celebrate and too soon to call it doomsday! Take a look at the data below for yourself, and give us some feedback regarding where you think the market is headed!
DATA BELOW TAKEN FROM CAR.ORG
September 2011 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
| September-11 | Median Price of Existing Single-Family Homes | Sales | |||||||
| State/Region/County | Sep-11 | Aug-11 | Sep-10 | MTM% Chg | YTY% Chg | MTM% Chg | YTY% Chg | ||
| CA SFH (SAAR) | $287,440 | $297,060 | r | $313,460 | r | -3.2% | -8.3% | -2.1% | 4.1% |
| CA Condo/Townhomes | $225,590 | $228,060 | $248,050 | r | -1.1% | -9.1% | -16.3% | -4.0% | |
| Los Angeles Metropolitan Area | $273,650 | $275,100 | $295,230 | -0.5% | -7.3% | -2.6% | 4.7% | ||
| Inland Empire | $170,650 | $173,670 | $181,640 | r | -1.7% | -6.1% | -8.8% | 7.4% | |
| S.F. Bay Area | $482,010 | $498,190 | $521,180 | r | -3.2% | -7.5% | -10.5% | 4.5% | |
| S.F. Bay Area | |||||||||
| Alameda | $457,320 | $468,900 | $462,500 | -2.5% | -1.1% | -11.7% | -0.2% | ||
| Contra-Costa (Central County) | $607,840 | $607,310 | $648,730 | 0.1% | -6.3% | -13.9% | 6.0% | ||
| Marin | $786,590 | $806,550 | $797,790 | -2.5% | -1.4% | -4.0% | 12.8% | ||
| Napa | $331,820 | $354,760 | $347,830 | -6.5% | -4.6% | -11.1% | 2.0% | ||
| San Francisco | $616,070 | $632,270 | $652,240 | -2.6% | -5.5% | -5.5% | 0.0% | ||
| San Mateo | $640,000 | $742,000 | $685,000 | -13.7% | -6.6% | -4.6% | 15.4% | ||
| Santa Clara | $569,100 | $595,000 | $608,000 | r | -4.4% | -6.4% | -14.5% | -1.9% | |
| Solano | $188,790 | $197,880 | $199,700 | -4.6% | -5.5% | -1.4% | 20.6% | ||
| Sonoma | $355,670 | $339,200 | $369,660 | 4.9% | -3.8% | -16.4% | -0.3% | ||
| Southern California | |||||||||
| Los Angeles | $330,610 | $312,900 | $355,900 | r | 5.7% | -7.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | |
| Orange County | $500,000 | $508,910 | $557,390 | r | -1.8% | -10.3% | -1.6% | 4.7% | |
| Riverside County | $199,890 | $202,060 | $209,660 | -1.1% | -4.7% | -9.5% | 5.3% | ||
| San Bernardino | $130,820 | $135,030 | $141,150 | -3.1% | -7.3% | -7.8% | 10.9% | ||
| San Diego | $364,180 | $369,390 | $388,850 | -1.4% | -6.3% | -4.0% | 6.1% | ||
| Ventura | $415,220 | $424,400 | $453,290 | -2.2% | -8.4% | -1.0% | 10.2% | ||
| Central Coast | |||||||||
| Monterey | $280,000 | $252,000 | $249,950 | r | 11.1% | 12.0% | -4.0% | -12.4% | |
| San Luis Obispo | $369,770 | $352,310 | $369,230 | r | 5.0% | 0.1% | -14.4% | 20.2% | |
| Santa Barbara | $361,360 | $421,430 | $513,890 | r | -14.3% | -29.7% | -5.3% | 28.3% | |
| Santa Cruz | $500,000 | $490,000 | $527,500 | r | 2.0% | -5.2% | -15.0% | -4.1% | |
| Central Valley | |||||||||
| Fresno | $141,770 | $145,730 | $155,060 | -2.7% | -8.6% | -4.6% | 16.7% | ||
| Kern (Bakersfield) | $129,480 | $133,900 | r | $130,000 | -3.3% | -0.4% | -18.7% | 0.4% | |
| Kings County | $141,670 | $130,000 | $167,860 | 9.0% | -15.6% | -14.0% | 7.2% | ||
| Madera | $125,380 | $128,750 | $141,670 | -2.6% | -11.5% | 26.7% | -20.8% | ||
| Merced | $120,000 | $126,670 | $121,070 | -5.3% | -0.9% | -1.6% | -25.4% | ||
| Placer County | $264,400 | $266,230 | $281,820 | -0.7% | -6.2% | -7.0% | 21.3% | ||
| Sacramento | $164,370 | $167,040 | $181,780 | -1.6% | -9.6% | -5.6% | 12.7% | ||
| San Benito | $272,500 | $239,900 | $274,000 | 13.6% | -0.5% | 2.3% | -15.4% | ||
| Tulare | $122,940 | $124,680 | $131,790 | -1.4% | -6.7% | -7.0% | 35.0% | ||
| Other Counties in California | |||||||||
| Amador | $130,000 | $145,000 | $167,500 | -10.3% | -22.4% | -23.9% | 20.7% | ||
| Butte County | $197,690 | $201,320 | $225,000 | -1.8% | -12.1% | 10.6% | 40.4% | ||
| Humboldt | $250,000 | $223,860 | $247,220 | 11.7% | 1.1% | -5.6% | 13.5% | ||
| Lake County | $120,000 | $123,640 | $127,500 | -2.9% | -5.9% | -17.0% | 10.0% | ||
| Tuolumne | $152,000 | $161,110 | $208,330 | -5.7% | -27.0% | 15.1% | 133.3% | ||
| Mendocino | $220,000 | $201,920 | $232,500 | 9.0% | -5.4% | -33.3% | -2.9% | ||
| Shasta | $167,920 | $162,920 | $175,420 | 3.1% | -4.3% | -4.6% | 16.8% | ||
| Siskiyou County | $113,330 | $116,670 | $145,000 | -2.9% | -21.8% | -20.0% | 40.0% | ||
| Tehama | $131,250 | $123,330 | $150,000 | 6.4% | -12.5% | 56.4% | 144.0% | ||
September 2011
Unsold Inventory And Median Time On Market (pdf file)
| September-11 | Unsold Inventory Index | Median Time on Market | ||||||||
| State/Region/County | Sep-11 | Aug-11 | Sep-10 | Sep-11 | Aug-11 | Sep-10 | ||||
| CA SFH (SAAR) | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.9 | r | 54.4 | 52.7 | 50.3 | r | ||
| CA Condo/Townhomes | 6.1 | 5.2 | 6.8 | r | 65.3 | 58.3 | 54.8 | |||
| Los Angeles Metropolitan Area | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 59.8 | 56.0 | 46.0 | ||||
| Inland Empire | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5.5 | r | 47.4 | 46.5 | 42.6 | |||
| S.F. Bay Area | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | r | 53.6 | 54.1 | 58.1 | |||
| S.F. Bay Area | ||||||||||
| Alameda | 4.6 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 67.9 | 73.3 | 76.1 | ||||
| Contra-Costa (Central County) | 4.6 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 83.3 | 81.9 | 84.0 | ||||
| Marin | 6.1 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 76.0 | 44.6 | 81.3 | ||||
| Napa | 7.9 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 86.9 | 94.4 | 99.6 | ||||
| San Francisco | 8.1 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 43.7 | 46.0 | 51.7 | ||||
| San Mateo | 4.0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | r | 29.4 | 26.9 | 32.6 | r | ||
| Santa Clara | 3.9 | 3.5 | 4.8 | r | 27.2 | 26.4 | 27.2 | |||
| Solano | 5.0 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 50.7 | 48.7 | 43.7 | ||||
| Sonoma | 6.6 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 83.8 | 74.9 | 74.9 | ||||
| Sourthern California | ||||||||||
| Los Angeles | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | r | 57.1 | 54.2 | 46.8 | r | ||
| Orange County | 6.4 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 94.1 | 81.3 | 72.3 | r | |||
| Riverside County | 4.8 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 52.3 | 53.5 | 48.6 | ||||
| San Bernardino | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 45.1 | 42.7 | 42.5 | ||||
| San Diego | 6.4 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 54.8 | 52.7 | 52.5 | ||||
| Ventura | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 72.8 | 70.1 | 62.0 | ||||
| Central Coast | ||||||||||
| Monterey | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 29.7 | 31.7 | 32.5 | ||||
| San Luis Obispo | 5.9 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 62.0 | 53.7 | 57.2 | ||||
| Santa Barbara | 6.1 | 5.8 | 8.2 | r | 66.3 | 82.8 | 65.5 | r | ||
| Santa Cruz | 6.1 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 47.2 | 48.1 | 53.2 | ||||
| Central Valley | ||||||||||
| Fresno | 3.8 | 3.9 | N/A | 38.4 | 34.7 | 48.1 | ||||
| Kern (Bakersfield) | 4.3 | 3.4 | r | 4.8 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||
| Kings County | 4.9 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 64.6 | 61.0 | 41.0 | ||||
| Madera | 3.2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 54.0 | 53.4 | 52.8 | ||||
| Merced | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 44.3 | 37.4 | 28.2 | ||||
| Placer County | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||||
| Sacramento | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 38.6 | 38.6 | 42.2 | ||||
| San Benito | 4.7 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 31.0 | 29.3 | 27.0 | ||||
| Tulare | 5.6 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 34.1 | 37.8 | 46.0 | ||||
| Other Counties in California | ||||||||||
| Amador | 9.4 | 7.2 | 12.4 | 57.1 | 67.4 | 115.2 | ||||
| Butte County | 5.0 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 61.9 | 49.5 | 59.0 | ||||
| Humboldt | 8.1 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 48.4 | 56.4 | 57.6 | ||||
| Lake County | 6.6 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 77.6 | 61.0 | 88.2 | ||||
| Tuolumne | 6.6 | 8.1 | 18.1 | 77.3 | 40.1 | r | 102.3 | |||
| Mendocino | 12.2 | 8.2 | 14.1 | 85.2 | 77.9 | 88.6 | ||||
| Shasta | 5.4 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 42.4 | 43.0 | 55.7 | ||||
| Siskiyou County | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||||
| Tehama | 5.4 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 47.2 | 77.3 | 68.3 | ||||
* Los Angeles Metropolitan Area is a 5-county region that includes Los Angeles County, Orange
County, Riverside County, San Bernardino County, and Ventura County
* S.F. Bay Area has been redefined to include the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa,
Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma
* Inland Empire includes Riverside County and San Bernardino County
* r = revised
* MTM%c Chg = Percent change from prior month
* YTY% Chg = Percent change from prior year
John is the Vice President here at JohnHart, and as such is responsible for managing and directing the firm towards obtaining its ultimate goals.
He is also one of our main contributors on the Blog. (please see his profile page on the main site for more information.)
